tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Southwest via MCO, leaving 14:12, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 892 American Flight history → MCI 05:00 MIA 09:18 10% 2% 1.1% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 6h 23m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 1h 10m Minneapolis MSP 09:04 → MIA 13:39DL 793 6h 16m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00AA 1297 1h 02m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 5h 40m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → MCI 07:46 → CLT 11:12AA 1003 2h 23m Charlotte CLT 13:35 → MIA 15:46AA 1198 7h 00m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:33DL 1323 7h 33m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → MCI 06:00 → PHL 09:45AA 946 1h 49m Philadelphia PHL 11:34 → MIA 14:34AA 1989 7h 34m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25UA 740 3h 35m Houston IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410 8h 31m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCI 17:40 → ATL 20:54DL 1660 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 6h 15m 97% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCI 07:53 → ORD 09:45UA 1491 48m Chicago ORD 10:33 → MIA 14:57UA 1620 6h 04m 71% 55%
AmericanDetails → MCI 16:07 → ORD 18:05AA 3939 · flown by Envoy 59m Chicago ORD 19:04 → MIA 23:26AA 1159 6h 19m 72% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON