tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:39, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching New Orleans on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 5h 58m 100% 93%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25UA 740 3h 30m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 6h 58m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 7h 17m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → MCI 08:58 → DEN 10:10UA 1384 3h 17m Denver DEN 13:27 → MSY 17:15UA 250 8h 17m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 5h 14m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCI 17:40 → ATL 20:54DL 1660 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → MSY 23:43DL 2224 6h 03m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 13:18 → ATL 16:26DL 2747 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → MSY 20:28DL 1450 7h 10m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 12:16 → ATL 15:23DL 2908 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 17:57 → MSY 18:34DL 678 6h 18m 99% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON