tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 946 American Flight history → MCI 06:00 PHL 09:45 6% 3% 0.6% 91%
AA 1480 American MCI 12:52 PHL 16:51 15% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 3h 15m Minneapolis MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679 7h 20m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279 6h 45m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613 2h 45m Minneapolis MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703 6h 52m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692 8h 04m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131 6h 02m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256 47m Detroit DTW 10:10 → PHL 11:46DL 2331 4h 21m 94% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 12:16 → ATL 15:23DL 2908 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065 8h 04m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 17:40 → ATL 20:54DL 1660 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642 6h 19m 98% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON