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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:39, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Pensacola on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198 5h 12m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640 6h 00m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013 7h 13m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211 6h 20m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → MCI 05:31 → DFW 07:23AA 1098 1h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:16 → PNS 11:19AA 3982 · flown by Envoy 5h 48m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 17:40 → ATL 20:54DL 1660 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → PNS 23:30DL 2807 5h 50m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 15:38 → ATL 18:48DL 1443 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 20:45 → PNS 20:58DL 3021 5h 20m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → MCI 08:58 → DEN 10:10UA 1384 1h 16m Denver DEN 11:26 → PNS 15:22UA 1891 6h 24m 98% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON