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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 4648 at 20:01, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4648 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history → MCI 20:01 RDU 23:31 8% 4% 0.8% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488 6h 03m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 2h 27m Minneapolis MSP 10:21 → RDU 13:51DL 2521 6h 28m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 13:05 → RDU 14:30DL 2026 6h 30m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 7h 20m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256 52m Detroit DTW 10:15 → RDU 11:57DL 2164 4h 32m 96% 91%
UnitedDetails → MCI 07:53 → ORD 09:45UA 1491 3h 22m Chicago ORD 13:07 → RDU 16:12UA 1142 7h 19m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCI 10:32 → DTW 13:30DL 2826 2h 32m Detroit DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407 6h 15m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 2h 53m Denver DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269 8h 16m 98% 89%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MCI 14:12 → MCO 17:51WN 2517 52m Orlando MCO 18:43 → RDU 20:32WN 941 5h 20m 74% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON