tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2051 United Flight history → MCI 07:31 SFO 09:19 7% 2% 0.6% 94%
UA 561 United MCI 17:33 SFO 19:40 10% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 3h 06m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 8h 46m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → SFO 11:55DL 672 8h 16m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MCI 15:38 → ATL 18:48DL 1443 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 21:55 → SFO 23:49DL 656 10h 11m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 12:16 → ATL 15:23DL 2908 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:57DL 495 9h 41m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897 2h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 6h 58m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256 2h 52m Detroit DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469 9h 52m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCI 18:00 → SLC 19:41DL 2903 3h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091 7h 52m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → SFO 15:49DL 823 10h 49m 99% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCI 16:26 → LAX 18:10UA 5489 · flown by SkyWest 47m Los Angeles LAX 18:57 → SFO 20:36UA 2837 6h 10m 69% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON