tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 2354 at 13:54, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2354 Southwest MCI 13:54 TPA 17:28 16% 5% 1.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 2h 06m Minneapolis MSP 10:00 → TPA 14:08DL 2264 6h 45m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 4h 50m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525 6h 13m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 2h 44m Denver DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010 8h 14m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 14:01 → TPA 15:35DL 1720 6h 35m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:00 → LGA 09:50DL 370 2h 39m New York LGA 12:29 → TPA 15:28DL 2106 8h 28m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MCI 07:53 → ORD 09:45UA 1491 1h 34m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 6h 19m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00AA 1297 2h 31m Charlotte CLT 12:31 → TPA 14:24AA 2915 6h 53m 99% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON