Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2319 at 09:59 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day


WN 2319 Southwest	MCO 09:59	ALB 12:55	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
B6 2919 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:59	ALB 20:02	27%	15%	5.3%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albany on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 09:03 → ALB 11:22DL 1137	5h 52m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:02 → DTW 11:45DL 2845	2h 47m Detroit	DTW 14:32 → ALB 16:15DL 3809 · flown by SkyWest	7h 13m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → ALB 17:42DL 1241	7h 37m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:05 → DTW 08:54DL 1201	1h 47m Detroit	DTW 10:41 → ALB 12:24DL 3810 · flown by SkyWest	6h 19m	99%	88%
American Details →	MCO 07:04 → CLT 08:54AA 1647	1h 34m Charlotte	CLT 10:28 → ALB 12:37AA 710	5h 33m	98%	87%
United Details →	MCO 09:40 → ORD 11:48UA 2683	2h 58m Chicago	ORD 14:46 → ALB 17:52UA 1634	8h 12m	100%	86%
American Details →	MCO 07:28 → PHL 10:05AA 1228	3h 00m Philadelphia	PHL 13:05 → ALB 14:29AA 6028 · flown by Piedmont	7h 03m	99%	85%
American Details →	MCO 09:01 → CLT 10:54AA 609	3h 29m Charlotte	CLT 14:23 → ALB 16:34AA 1075	7h 33m	99%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCO 16:42 → ORD 18:53AA 1782	48m Chicago	ORD 19:41 → ALB 22:50AA 3420 · flown by Envoy	6h 08m	63%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON