Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1548 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 1548 MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 4025 MCO 17:24 → ATL 19:25 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1548 Delta Flight history →	MCO 05:30	ATL 07:05	2%	1%	1.2%	95%
DL 1494 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:15	ATL 07:58	3%	2%	1.3%	94%
DL 2080 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:05	ATL 08:46	5%	2%	1.3%	90%
DL 1463 Delta Flight history →	MCO 08:05	ATL 09:42	6%	3%	1.3%	90%
WN 1332 Southwest	MCO 08:53	ATL 10:36	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
DL 1505 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:05	ATL 10:45	8%	3%	1.3%	88%
DL 2204 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:05	ATL 11:41	9%	3%	1.6%	89%
DL 1658 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:05	ATL 13:45	12%	3%	1.6%	81%
DL 1213 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:05	ATL 12:42	13%	3%	1.6%	84%
DL 1030 Delta Flight history →	MCO 14:05	ATL 15:55	13%	5%	1.3%	75%
DL 1497 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:55	ATL 21:48	14%	9%	2.1%	67%
DL 664 Delta Flight history →	MCO 13:05	ATL 14:44	15%	4%	1.3%	82%
F9 1241 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:16	ATL 11:05	17%	6%	1.6%	67%
DL 1150 Delta Flight history →	MCO 17:45	ATL 19:47	18%	9%	2.1%	60%
DL 1372 Delta Flight history →	MCO 16:35	ATL 18:09	19%	9%	1.6%	67%
WN 2542 Southwest	MCO 14:02	ATL 15:45	20%	4%	1.2%	no record
DL 1576 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:38	ATL 17:12	20%	6%	1.3%	72%
DL 1742 Delta Flight history →	MCO 18:52	ATL 20:54	22%	9%	2.1%	55%
WN 2543 Southwest	MCO 18:53	ATL 20:36	27%	7%	2.1%	no record
F9 3507 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:00	ATL 14:47	27%	7%	1.9%	70%
F9 4025 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:24	ATL 19:25	28%	11%	3.2%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON