Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3761 at 13:29, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3761 Southwest	MCO 13:29	BHM 14:08	11%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → BHM 08:25DL 3100	3h 55m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → BHM 09:57DL 3164	4h 42m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	5h 05m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012	5h 19m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:47DL 1150	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 23:05 → BHM 23:02DL 2034	6h 17m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 15:14 → BHM 15:10DL 3163	6h 05m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MCO 15:38 → ATL 17:13DL 1576	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202	5h 20m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	MCO 11:05 → ATL 12:42DL 1213	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484	6h 17m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON