Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2552 at 08:44 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 2552 MCO 08:44 → BNA 09:49 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3559 MCO 14:49 → BNA 16:05 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2552 Southwest	MCO 08:44	BNA 09:49	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
F9 1285 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:35	BNA 08:50	10%	3%	0.7%	82%
WN 4788 Southwest	MCO 20:10	BNA 21:09	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2559 Southwest	MCO 11:54	BNA 12:53	10%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 2557 Southwest	MCO 16:06	BNA 17:05	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 2555 Southwest	MCO 14:50	BNA 15:49	14%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 2556 Southwest	MCO 18:41	BNA 19:50	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
F9 3559 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:49	BNA 16:05	17%	7%	0.9%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON