Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 766 at 08:58 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 766 MCO 08:58 → BUF 11:37 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1325 MCO 19:04 → BUF 21:45 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 766 Southwest	MCO 08:58	BUF 11:37	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
B6 1586 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:55	BUF 20:46	23%	9%	4.4%	64%
WN 1325 Southwest	MCO 19:04	BUF 21:45	25%	7%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON