Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2562 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 1% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12%.

Safest bet that day WN 2562 MCO 06:26 → BWI 08:48 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4004 MCO 11:53 → BWI 14:30 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2562 Southwest	MCO 06:26	BWI 08:48	1%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2563 Southwest	MCO 08:27	BWI 10:46	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2568 Southwest	MCO 10:26	BWI 12:48	5%	1%	0.8%	no record
F9 3274 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:30	BWI 08:54	6%	2%	1.4%	89%
WN 1802 Southwest	MCO 11:23	BWI 13:42	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 147 Southwest	MCO 15:06	BWI 17:32	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 2564 Southwest	MCO 14:03	BWI 16:23	9%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 777 Southwest	MCO 17:26	BWI 19:48	12%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 373 Southwest	MCO 16:06	BWI 18:27	12%	3%	1.0%	no record
F9 4004 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:53	BWI 14:30	15%	6%	1.3%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON