Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day F9 1915 MCO 07:18 → CLE 10:13 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 2251 MCO 21:49 → CLE 00:35 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1915 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:18	CLE 10:13	6%	2%	0.9%	87%
UA 486 United Flight history →	MCO 11:35	CLE 14:06	8%	3%	0.9%	92%
UA 583 United	MCO 20:35	CLE 23:13	13%	7%	0.8%	no record
F9 2251 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 21:49	CLE 00:35	14%	7%	1.0%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON