Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3275 at 06:48 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–16%.

Safest bet that day AA 3275 MCO 06:48 → CLT 08:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 362 MCO 18:55 → CLT 20:44 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3275 American	MCO 06:48	CLT 08:38	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1647 American Flight history →	MCO 07:04	CLT 08:54	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
F9 1760 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:29	CLT 08:28	6%	3%	1.0%	65%
AA 609 American Flight history →	MCO 09:01	CLT 10:54	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
AA 461 American Flight history →	MCO 07:49	CLT 09:37	7%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 2917 American Flight history →	MCO 12:04	CLT 13:51	10%	3%	0.8%	80%
AA 2170 American	MCO 11:00	CLT 12:47	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1576 American	MCO 13:31	CLT 15:22	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1639 American	MCO 15:05	CLT 16:53	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
F9 2452 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:12	CLT 15:04	14%	4%	1.2%	74%
AA 362 American	MCO 18:55	CLT 20:44	16%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON