Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 21%, against 7% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4200 at 07:16, 5%.

Safest bet that day WN 4200 MCO 07:16 → DAL 08:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1162 MCO 15:52 → DAL 17:30 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Weather 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4200 Southwest	MCO 07:16	DAL 08:59	5%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 1308 Southwest	MCO 12:32	DAL 14:13	16%	3%	1.6%	no record
WN 1387 Southwest	MCO 14:36	DAL 16:14	23%	6%	1.9%	no record
WN 268 Southwest	MCO 17:43	DAL 19:21	27%	6%	3.6%	no record
WN 1162 Southwest	MCO 15:52	DAL 17:30	33%	9%	3.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON