Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2580 at 07:43 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2580 MCO 07:43 → DEN 09:34 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 667 MCO 15:35 → DEN 17:18 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2580 Southwest	MCO 07:43	DEN 09:34	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
F9 1733 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:00	DEN 08:07	7%	2%	1.2%	91%
UA 2307 United	MCO 08:28	DEN 10:36	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2581 Southwest	MCO 09:52	DEN 11:41	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1520 United Flight history →	MCO 12:50	DEN 14:51	9%	3%	0.8%	93%
WN 2108 Southwest	MCO 11:12	DEN 13:03	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
F9 4919 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:26	DEN 15:32	16%	4%	1.8%	85%
UA 1770 United Flight history →	MCO 17:17	DEN 19:45	18%	5%	1.3%	69%
WN 2583 Southwest	MCO 14:03	DEN 15:57	19%	5%	1.2%	no record
WN 2584 Southwest	MCO 18:06	DEN 20:01	24%	6%	2.1%	no record
UA 667 United	MCO 15:35	DEN 17:18	33%	8%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON