Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1201 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16%.

Safest bet that day DL 1201 MCO 06:05 → DTW 08:54 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1123 MCO 16:07 → DTW 18:50 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1201 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:05	DTW 08:54	2%	1%	0.7%	93%
DL 2845 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:02	DTW 11:45	5%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 1455 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:28	DTW 15:16	10%	3%	0.8%	79%
F9 3363 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:06	DTW 18:00	11%	6%	0.8%	90%
DL 2084 Delta	MCO 14:06	DTW 16:47	15%	5%	0.9%	no record
DL 337 Delta Flight history →	MCO 17:51	DTW 20:54	16%	7%	1.0%	62%
DL 1123 Delta	MCO 16:07	DTW 18:50	16%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON