Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1309 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 1309 MCO 05:56 → EWR 08:41 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 1728 MCO 18:59 → EWR 21:44 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1309 United Flight history →	MCO 05:56	EWR 08:41	2%	2%	1.2%	96%
UA 1105 United Flight history →	MCO 06:30	EWR 09:15	4%	1%	1.0%	95%
UA 1227 United Flight history →	MCO 09:10	EWR 11:53	8%	3%	0.9%	91%
UA 1081 United	MCO 10:31	EWR 13:18	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
B6 2028 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:51	EWR 12:36	11%	3%	1.2%	81%
UA 254 United	MCO 11:46	EWR 14:36	13%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 1626 United	MCO 12:52	EWR 15:38	13%	5%	1.2%	no record
F9 2512 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 22:15	EWR 01:07	14%	8%	2.7%	90%
UA 1643 United Flight history →	MCO 14:37	EWR 17:30	22%	9%	1.6%	74%
UA 1407 United	MCO 19:13	EWR 21:49	24%	9%	2.3%	no record
UA 2629 United Flight history →	MCO 16:03	EWR 18:56	25%	9%	2.1%	63%
UA 776 United Flight history →	MCO 17:27	EWR 20:09	27%	8%	2.3%	71%
UA 2662 United	MCO 18:08	EWR 21:00	28%	9%	2.3%	no record
B6 1728 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:59	EWR 21:44	35%	11%	3.6%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON