Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4056 at 10:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 4056 MCO 10:30 → FLL 11:37 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1947 MCO 18:25 → FLL 19:37 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4056 Southwest	MCO 10:30	FLL 11:37	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
B6 2547 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:05	FLL 11:12	17%	5%	1.1%	80%
WN 3160 Southwest	MCO 18:41	FLL 19:48	21%	5%	0.9%	no record
B6 1947 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:25	FLL 19:37	23%	10%	1.1%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON