Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2871 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 2871 MCO 07:11 → HOU 08:34 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest WN 46 MCO 15:30 → HOU 16:52 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2871 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:11	HOU 08:34	6%	1%	0.9%	67%
WN 313 Southwest	MCO 08:54	HOU 10:16	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 4967 Southwest	MCO 10:13	HOU 11:36	11%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 662 Southwest	MCO 17:47	HOU 19:08	24%	7%	3.6%	no record
WN 46 Southwest	MCO 15:30	HOU 16:52	26%	8%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON