Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 94 MCO 09:12 → HPN 11:59 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest B6 1694 MCO 20:19 → HPN 23:17 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 94 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:12	HPN 11:59	16%	4%	1.6%	76%
B6 194 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 11:53	HPN 14:42	23%	5%	1.8%	84%
B6 1694 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 20:19	HPN 23:17	24%	8%	2.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON