Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2746 MCO 08:57 → IAD 11:22 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1997 MCO 19:05 → IAD 21:30 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2746 United	MCO 08:57	IAD 11:22	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1893 United Flight history →	MCO 09:37	IAD 11:55	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
UA 1757 United Flight history →	MCO 12:45	IAD 15:10	9%	4%	0.8%	83%
F9 4230 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 08:01	IAD 10:16	11%	4%	1.0%	77%
UA 390 United	MCO 18:13	IAD 20:36	12%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 1997 United Flight history →	MCO 19:05	IAD 21:30	13%	6%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON