Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 468 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15%.

Safest bet that day UA 468 MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 3469 MCO 19:32 → IAH 21:13 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 468 United Flight history →	MCO 07:00	IAH 08:35	5%	2%	0.7%	95%
UA 1493 United Flight history →	MCO 11:57	IAH 13:29	9%	3%	0.8%	95%
UA 2406 United Flight history →	MCO 14:06	IAH 15:40	10%	4%	1.0%	87%
UA 2456 United Flight history →	MCO 15:15	IAH 17:06	11%	4%	0.9%	89%
F9 1417 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:31	IAH 15:11	14%	5%	0.9%	87%
UA 1872 United Flight history →	MCO 17:19	IAH 18:58	15%	7%	1.1%	66%
F9 3469 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 19:32	IAH 21:13	15%	6%	1.3%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON