Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1198 MCO 12:16 → ISP 14:57 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 546 MCO 13:06 → ISP 15:56 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1198 Southwest	MCO 12:16	ISP 14:57	12%	3%	1.0%	no record
F9 1238 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:17	ISP 17:14	16%	8%	2.1%	83%
B6 546 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 13:06	ISP 15:56	17%	6%	1.9%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON