Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2702 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 2702 MCO 06:00 → JFK 08:43 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 2984 MCO 16:05 → JFK 18:54 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2702 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:00	JFK 08:43	3%	1%	0.9%	93%
DL 2693 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:40	JFK 10:17	5%	2%	1.1%	88%
B6 884 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 06:02	JFK 08:44	6%	2%	1.1%	53%
B6 384 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:45	JFK 12:28	11%	5%	1.6%	68%
DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:05	JFK 13:46	15%	6%	1.8%	82%
DL 2775 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:22	JFK 18:45	16%	10%	1.1%	74%
DL 1685 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:46	JFK 22:32	17%	9%	1.2%	56%
B6 1084 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:57	JFK 17:44	27%	13%	1.5%	79%
B6 2984 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:05	JFK 18:54	31%	13%	1.6%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON