Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1573 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 1573 MCO 07:00 → LGA 09:41 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 1098 MCO 17:15 → LGA 20:03 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1573 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:00	LGA 09:41	6%	2%	1.3%	91%
DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:48	LGA 13:24	17%	6%	2.3%	84%
DL 1579 Delta	MCO 20:02	LGA 22:39	21%	9%	1.4%	no record
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:47	LGA 18:50	24%	12%	1.3%	72%
DL 1511 Delta Flight history →	MCO 13:54	LGA 16:30	26%	12%	1.6%	76%
AA 3038 American	MCO 11:24	LGA 14:12	27%	12%	3.2%	no record
B6 598 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:22	LGA 15:04	34%	17%	2.3%	78%worse than usual
B6 698 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:45	LGA 17:27	39%	18%	2.0%	73%worse than usual
AA 902 American Flight history →	MCO 18:02	LGA 20:45	39%	13%	1.6%	41%
B6 1098 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:15	LGA 20:03	42%	18%	1.9%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON