Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Southwest via Hobby, leaving 07:11, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Long Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MCO 07:11 → HOU 08:34WN 2871	57m Houston	HOU 09:31 → LGB 11:00WN 1950	6h 49m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	7h 44m	98%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON