Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 18%, against 7% on a calm day. Safest: WN 359 at 07:37, 5%.

Safest bet that day WN 359 MCO 07:37 → MDW 09:32 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 106 MCO 15:55 → MDW 17:54 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Weather 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 359 Southwest	MCO 07:37	MDW 09:32	5%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 290 Southwest	MCO 10:23	MDW 12:18	9%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 4644 Southwest	MCO 13:04	MDW 15:00	16%	4%	1.8%	no record
WN 679 Southwest	MCO 17:28	MDW 19:27	25%	5%	2.7%	no record
WN 1429 Southwest	MCO 19:14	MDW 21:11	26%	5%	2.1%	no record
WN 106 Southwest	MCO 15:55	MDW 17:54	28%	6%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON