tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:05, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Memphis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778 6h 27m 99% 92%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:11 → HOU 08:34WN 2871 3h 42m Houston HOU 12:16 → MEM 13:54WN 1556 7h 43m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → MEM 09:27DL 2071 4h 57m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937 5h 17m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:14DL 733 6h 09m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → MCO 08:26 → DFW 10:29AA 2961 2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:37 → MEM 14:19AA 3888 · flown by Envoy 6h 53m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:10 → EWR 11:53UA 1227 1h 36m Newark EWR 13:29 → MEM 15:25UA 3650 · flown by Republic 7h 15m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 11:17 → MSP 13:43DL 1730 2h 02m Minneapolis MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest 7h 35m 99% 89%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCO 15:15 → IAH 17:06UA 2456 59m Houston IAH 18:05 → MEM 19:54UA 6167 · flown by Mesa 5h 39m 71% 57%
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:47 → LGA 18:50DL 2564 57m New York LGA 19:47 → MEM 21:31DL 5606 · flown by Republic 6h 44m 68% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON