Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1733 at 07:34, 9%.

Safest bet that day AA 1733 MCO 07:34 → MIA 08:46 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 3654 MCO 18:50 → MIA 19:51 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Weather 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1733 American Flight history →	MCO 07:34	MIA 08:46	9%	3%	1.3%	90%
AA 2240 American Flight history →	MCO 10:00	MIA 11:15	18%	6%	1.3%	88%
WN 3860 Southwest	MCO 10:38	MIA 11:43	18%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 366 American	MCO 11:52	MIA 13:10	25%	6%	1.6%	no record
AA 1630 American	MCO 13:06	MIA 14:20	33%	11%	1.8%	no record
AA 1635 American	MCO 15:44	MIA 16:58	46%	16%	3.9%	no record
AA 1610 American	MCO 19:28	MIA 20:49	46%	26%	5.2%	no record
WN 3654 Southwest	MCO 18:50	MIA 19:51	50%	25%	5.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON