Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 10:45, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Oakland on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031	1h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:20 → OAK 16:21DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	8h 36m	98%	91%
Southwest Details →	MCO 07:11 → HOU 08:34WN 2871	1h 00m Houston	HOU 09:34 → OAK 11:36WN 1981	7h 25m	94%	88%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	7h 31m	92%	87%
Frontier Details →	MCO 05:59 → LAS 07:57F9 1875	2h 19m Las Vegas	LAS 10:16 → OAK 12:04F9 2045	9h 05m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON