Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Oklahoma City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 11:04 → OKC 12:11DL 2020	7h 41m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:08 → OKC 10:14DL 2490	4h 59m	97%	88%
American Details →	MCO 07:04 → CLT 08:53AA 1647	1h 48m Charlotte	CLT 10:41 → OKC 12:19AA 1626	6h 15m	99%	86%
Southwest Details →	MCO 07:11 → HOU 08:34WN 2871	53m Houston	HOU 09:27 → OKC 10:57WN 3589	4h 46m	91%	85%
American Details →	MCO 06:30 → ORD 08:36AA 938	3h 40m Chicago	ORD 12:16 → OKC 14:32AA 6337 · flown by SkyWest	9h 02m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	MCO 14:05 → ATL 15:55DL 1030	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 19:05 → OKC 20:15DL 2784	7h 10m	95%	83%
American Details →	MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677	1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:02 → OKC 10:14AA 1902	5h 44m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862	7h 17m	98%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MCO 17:17 → DEN 19:45UA 1770	57m Denver	DEN 20:42 → OKC 23:29UA 4727 · flown by SkyWest	7h 12m	71%	63%
American Details →	MCO 15:34 → DFW 17:26AA 1737	1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:36 → OKC 19:48AA 3287	5h 14m	70%	53%
American Details →	MCO 15:27 → ORD 17:34AA 3031	48m Chicago	ORD 18:22 → OKC 20:40AA 6493 · flown by SkyWest	6h 13m	57%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON