Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025	1h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:16 → ONT 12:16DL 1173	8h 01m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	8h 08m	99%	90%
American Details →	MCO 07:30 → DFW 09:29AA 599	2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:08 → ONT 13:32AA 2635	9h 02m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12DL 347	2h 18m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → ONT 17:21DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest	11h 16m	99%	86%
American Details →	MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677	3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:42 → ONT 12:01AA 2956	9h 31m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON