Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 18%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: AA 938 at 06:30, 5%.

Safest bet that day AA 938 MCO 06:30 → ORD 08:36 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1782 MCO 16:42 → ORD 18:53 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Weather 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 938 American Flight history →	MCO 06:30	ORD 08:36	5%	2%	0.8%	91%
UA 1993 United	MCO 07:05	ORD 09:11	6%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 2466 United Flight history →	MCO 10:52	ORD 13:02	8%	3%	0.9%	92%
UA 2683 United Flight history →	MCO 09:40	ORD 11:48	8%	3%	0.8%	94%
AA 2279 American Flight history →	MCO 08:24	ORD 10:27	9%	3%	0.9%	76%
UA 2475 United Flight history →	MCO 12:34	ORD 14:42	13%	5%	1.3%	82%
AA 662 American	MCO 11:43	ORD 13:50	14%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 2481 United Flight history →	MCO 14:25	ORD 16:43	20%	6%	1.3%	72%
UA 1621 United Flight history →	MCO 19:40	ORD 21:47	25%	6%	1.3%	70%
UA 2845 United	MCO 17:58	ORD 20:02	25%	5%	2.2%	no record
UA 2071 United Flight history →	MCO 16:21	ORD 18:39	30%	7%	2.1%	58%
AA 3031 American Flight history →	MCO 15:27	ORD 17:35	33%	10%	2.1%	64%
AA 1782 American Flight history →	MCO 16:42	ORD 18:53	34%	8%	3.6%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON