tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 301 Alaska Flight history → MCO 17:29 PDX 20:34 22% 6% 3.2% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250 1h 32m Minneapolis MSP 10:58 → PDX 12:39DL 1661 8h 39m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 10h 28m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCO 11:17 → MSP 13:43DL 1730 2h 15m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 9h 18m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 1h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 7h 55m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → MCO 12:05 → ATL 13:45DL 1658 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503 9h 51m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCO 14:05 → ATL 15:55DL 1030 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 19:50 → PDX 21:58DL 691 10h 53m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031 1h 56m Salt Lake City SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244 8h 24m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:45 → LAX 11:49DL 504 2h 30m Los Angeles LAX 14:19 → PDX 16:34DL 2551 9h 49m 99% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:00 → MSP 17:39DL 1208 55m Minneapolis MSP 18:34 → PDX 20:15DL 2151 8h 15m 74% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON