Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1228 at 07:28 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 1228 MCO 07:28 → PHL 10:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 4404 MCO 18:42 → PHL 21:31 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1228 American Flight history →	MCO 07:28	PHL 10:05	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
AA 2779 American Flight history →	MCO 08:27	PHL 11:14	6%	2%	0.7%	81%
F9 2506 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:00	PHL 09:57	7%	3%	1.0%	69%
AA 629 American Flight history →	MCO 10:59	PHL 13:45	8%	3%	0.8%	92%
AA 1574 American	MCO 12:30	PHL 15:18	11%	5%	0.9%	no record
F9 3856 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:04	PHL 13:54	13%	6%	1.0%	70%
AA 3268 American	MCO 15:17	PHL 18:09	14%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 2811 Southwest	MCO 15:09	PHL 17:42	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 3153 American Flight history →	MCO 16:13	PHL 18:53	15%	6%	0.8%	70%
AA 2523 American	MCO 18:15	PHL 20:43	17%	6%	0.9%	no record
F9 2508 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 21:07	PHL 23:44	17%	7%	0.9%	48%
F9 4404 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:42	PHL 21:31	20%	8%	1.1%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON