Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3480 MCO 10:24 → PHX 11:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2629 MCO 16:56 → PHX 18:21 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3480 Southwest	MCO 10:24	PHX 11:59	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1605 American	MCO 07:47	PHX 09:40	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2629 Southwest	MCO 16:56	PHX 18:21	11%	4%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MCO 07:11 → HOU 08:34WN 2871	1h 10m Houston	HOU 09:44 → PHX 10:32WN 380	6h 21m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348	6h 31m	98%	89%
United Details →	MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468	1h 05m Houston	IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895	6h 34m	96%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON