Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 222 MCO 08:39 → PIT 10:58 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4275 MCO 19:22 → PIT 21:43 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 222 Southwest	MCO 08:39	PIT 10:58	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2219 Southwest	MCO 12:56	PIT 15:15	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
F9 1620 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:07	PIT 13:45	11%	5%	0.9%	77%
WN 2634 Southwest	MCO 15:41	PIT 18:00	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4275 Southwest	MCO 19:22	PIT 21:43	14%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON