Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1484 at 08:58 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1484 MCO 08:58 → PVD 11:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1075 MCO 14:04 → PVD 17:01 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1484 Southwest	MCO 08:58	PVD 11:47	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2730 Southwest	MCO 17:28	PVD 20:18	25%	6%	2.7%	no record
B6 1075 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:04	PVD 17:01	26%	9%	1.3%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON