tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: B6 670 at 14:05, 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 670 JetBlue Flight history → MCO 14:05 RIC 16:15 27% 8% 1.3% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650 6h 26m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → RIC 14:07DL 3152 7h 02m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:02 → DTW 11:45DL 2845 2h 40m Detroit DTW 14:25 → RIC 16:07DL 3073 7h 05m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:04 → CLT 08:54AA 1647 1h 54m Charlotte CLT 10:48 → RIC 12:10AA 5119 · flown by PSA 5h 06m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:10 → EWR 11:53UA 1227 3h 30m Newark EWR 15:23 → RIC 17:06UA 3639 · flown by Republic 7h 56m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214 6h 18m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → MCO 10:52 → ORD 13:02UA 2466 1h 28m Chicago ORD 14:30 → RIC 17:49UA 3523 · flown by Republic 6h 57m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 13:05 → ATL 14:44DL 664 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 18:32 → RIC 20:15DL 1263 7h 10m 99% 89%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 15:34 → DFW 17:27AA 1737 1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:55 → RIC 22:57AA 3037 7h 23m 74% 60%
JetBlueDetails → MCO 18:25 → FLL 19:37B6 1947 1h 18m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:55 → RIC 23:18B6 1146 4h 53m 60% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON