tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 2821 at 11:56, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2821 Southwest MCO 11:56 ROC 14:37 14% 3% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 09:23 → ROC 11:31DL 2511 6h 01m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:04 → CLT 08:54AA 1647 1h 14m Charlotte CLT 10:08 → ROC 12:04AA 2742 5h 00m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → ROC 17:20DL 2047 7h 15m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:40 → ORD 11:48UA 2683 2h 07m Chicago ORD 13:55 → ROC 16:45UA 1239 7h 05m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → MCO 12:34 → ORD 14:42UA 2475 3h 47m Chicago ORD 18:29 → ROC 21:22UA 1568 8h 48m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:37 → IAD 11:55UA 1893 55m Dulles IAD 12:50 → ROC 14:18UA 4485 · flown by GoJet 4h 41m 91% 77%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:28 → PHL 10:05AA 1228 3h 12m Philadelphia PHL 13:17 → ROC 14:48AA 5907 · flown by Piedmont 7h 17m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → MCO 16:13 → PHL 18:53AA 3153 3h 17m Philadelphia PHL 22:10 → ROC 23:41AA 6090 · flown by Piedmont 7h 28m 100% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON