tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2640 at 10:34, 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2640 Southwest MCO 10:34 RSW 11:37 16% 5% 1.6% no record
WN 1268 Southwest MCO 18:46 RSW 19:49 41% 14% 4.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 08:05 → RSW 09:43DL 1089 4h 13m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 5h 56m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCO 08:05 → ATL 09:42DL 1463 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196 6h 30m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:04 → CLT 08:54AA 1647 3h 05m Charlotte CLT 11:59 → RSW 14:08AA 2018 7h 04m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:02 → DTW 11:45DL 2845 2h 43m Detroit DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225 8h 20m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:47DL 1150 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → RSW 00:23 +1DL 1217 6h 38m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → MCO 12:34 → ORD 14:42UA 2475 1h 44m Chicago ORD 16:26 → RSW 20:34UA 2618 8h 00m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:43 → RSW 13:40AA 2740 8h 10m 98% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 15:34 → DFW 17:27AA 1737 1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:51 → RSW 22:38AA 1267 7h 04m 72% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON