Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 397 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 19:20	SAN 21:27	17%	5%	1.0%	74%
WN 2642 Southwest	MCO 16:46	SAN 18:49	19%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250	2h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125	9h 24m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → SAN 09:26DL 725	6h 56m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:05 → DTW 08:54DL 1201	3h 40m Detroit	DTW 12:34 → SAN 14:26DL 761	11h 21m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540	9h 53m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12DL 347	3h 03m Seattle	SEA 15:15 → SAN 18:05DL 2613	12h 00m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	MCO 07:11 → HOU 08:34WN 2871	55m Houston	HOU 09:29 → SAN 10:50WN 3474	6h 39m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:45 → LAX 11:49DL 504	2h 22m Los Angeles	LAX 14:11 → SAN 15:08DL 4001 · flown by SkyWest	8h 23m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → SAN 11:43DL 843	7h 38m	97%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON