tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: F9 1653 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
F9 1653 Frontier Flight history → MCO 07:41 SAT 09:27 11% 5% 1.2% 82%
WN 2644 Southwest MCO 18:04 SAT 19:49 25% 7% 2.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:11 → HOU 08:34WN 2871 2h 50m Houston HOU 11:24 → SAT 12:26WN 813 6h 15m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 33m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 08:20 → SAT 09:43DL 1676 5h 13m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 7h 05m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:02 → DTW 11:45DL 2845 1h 56m Detroit DTW 13:41 → SAT 15:51DL 2458 7h 49m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 11:05 → ATL 12:42DL 1213 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 15:58 → SAT 17:29DL 1465 7h 24m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → MCO 12:45 → IAD 15:10UA 1757 2h 35m Dulles IAD 17:45 → SAT 20:22UA 1869 8h 37m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468 1h 03m Houston IAH 09:38 → SAT 10:54UA 1371 4h 54m 94% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 15:34 → DFW 17:27AA 1737 1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:35 → SAT 19:53AA 2368 5h 19m 70% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON