Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3903 at 09:10, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3903 Southwest	MCO 09:10	SDF 11:23	7%	2%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481	6h 21m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → SDF 10:29DL 1374	4h 14m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:00 → LGA 09:41DL 1573	1h 24m New York	LGA 11:05 → SDF 13:27DL 5637 · flown by Republic	6h 27m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195	6h 37m	100%	91%
American Details →	MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677	2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy	7h 18m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:47DL 1150	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624	6h 41m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MCO 11:05 → ATL 12:42DL 1213	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126	6h 44m	99%	88%
American Details →	MCO 07:04 → CLT 08:54AA 1647	1h 30m Charlotte	CLT 10:24 → SDF 11:52AA 5145 · flown by PSA	4h 48m	97%	87%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCO 15:34 → DFW 17:27AA 1737	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:33 → SDF 21:55AA 2212	6h 21m	69%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON