Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 347 at 09:05 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 347 MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 419 MCO 18:50 → SEA 21:45 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 347 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:05	SEA 12:12	13%	3%	1.3%	86%
AS 468 Alaska	MCO 09:03	SEA 11:52	17%	3%	1.2%	no record
DL 328 Delta Flight history →	MCO 18:45	SEA 22:05	22%	6%	2.2%	68%
AS 419 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 18:50	SEA 21:45	27%	6%	3.2%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 11:17 → MSP 13:43DL 1730	1h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 43m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	8h 08m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025	1h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	8h 34m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON