Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2855 at 08:09 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 2855 MCO 08:09 → SFO 10:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 2620 MCO 18:57 → SFO 21:58 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2855 United Flight history →	MCO 08:09	SFO 10:53	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 2802 United	MCO 09:58	SFO 12:57	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2620 United Flight history →	MCO 18:57	SFO 21:58	17%	6%	0.7%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 50m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → SFO 11:55DL 672	7h 50m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	7h 48m	97%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON