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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Southwest via Hobby, leaving 07:11, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:11 → HOU 08:34WN 2871 2h 08m Houston HOU 10:42 → SMF 12:44WN 1809 8h 33m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 30m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 1h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 8h 01m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:30 → ORD 08:36AA 938 3h 13m Chicago ORD 11:49 → SMF 14:34AA 1906 11h 04m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:30 → DFW 09:29AA 599 2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:39 → SMF 13:46AA 2078 9h 16m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250 58m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 09m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12DL 347 2h 28m Seattle SEA 14:40 → SMF 16:39DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest 10h 34m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031 2h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 15:25 → SMF 16:07DL 1342 8h 22m 98% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON