tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Bush, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468 3h 54m Houston IAH 12:29 → SNA 14:12UA 1533 10h 12m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:43 → SNA 11:03AA 1939 8h 33m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → MCO 08:26 → DFW 10:29AA 2961 3h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:23 → SNA 15:46AA 2659 10h 20m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → MCO 08:09 → SFO 10:53UA 2855 1h 34m San Francisco SFO 12:27 → SNA 14:12UA 2441 9h 03m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:30 → DFW 09:29AA 599 1h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:22 → SNA 12:45AA 1933 8h 15m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 10h 01m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:40 → ATL 17:30DL 1372 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 9h 45m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → MCO 15:15 → IAH 17:06UA 2456 2h 56m Houston IAH 20:02 → SNA 21:39UA 326 9h 24m 96% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON